Chornomorets 0-1 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Chornomorets welcome Minai to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Chornomorets this season.
Minai — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 1.50 PPG versus Minai's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chornomorets, 0 for Minai and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Minai trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 59% versus Minai 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 61% | Minai 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.19 xG and Minai 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.033 / defence 1.008 | Minai attack 0.713 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.182. Data: 44 Chornomorets games / 44 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 44% | Draw 30% | Minai 26%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Minai 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Minai 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 44% | Draw 30% | Minai 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Chornomorets 1.19 / Minai 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.033 / def 1.008 | Minai attack 0.713 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Minai xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Minai kick off?
Chornomorets vs Minai kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Minai?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Minai.
Where is Chornomorets vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Minai part of?
Chornomorets vs Minai is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 44% chance of winning, Minai a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chornomorets and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Minai?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Minai in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Minai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Minai's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.35
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.04
0.85
Minai xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.85 for Minai, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 10W 13D 21L from 44 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 22L across 44 games — 0.82 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.98 PPG, Minai on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 4W 7D 11L from 22 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.70 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Minai in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Minai have gone 7W 15D 22L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Minai away?
Chornomorets's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.86 PPG; Minai away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Minai specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Minai?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Minai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Minai 2-0 Chornomorets.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Minai see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Minai 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 32% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 41% of games; Minai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 41% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 32% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Minai tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Minai in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Minai defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.19 xG and Minai 0.85 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Minai attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 44% | Draw 30% | Minai 26%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Minai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 61%, Minai 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Minai's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.98 PPG, Minai 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Minai win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.