Lviv 0-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chornomorets at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Lviv welcome Chornomorets to Stadion SKIF. Kick-off is set for Thursday 25 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion SKIF — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Lviv are significantly better at Stadion SKIF than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Chornomorets's 1.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lviv's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lviv have won 0, Chornomorets 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Chornomorets trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 44% versus Chornomorets 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 38% | Chornomorets 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.00 xG and Chornomorets 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.715 / defence 1.188 | Chornomorets attack 1.353 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.219. Lviv's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chornomorets have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Lviv games / 45 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 19% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 60%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Chornomorets 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Chornomorets (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lviv 40% | Chornomorets 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 19% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Lviv 1.00 / Chornomorets 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.715 / def 1.188 | Chornomorets attack 1.353 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Chornomorets xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Lviv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Lviv 0 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Lviv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Chornomorets part of?
Lviv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 19% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lviv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Lviv and Chornomorets in?
Lviv (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.71) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
19%
5.31
22%
4.64
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.96
1.96
Chornomorets xG
5.31
19%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
3%
37.62
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lviv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lviv and 1.96 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lviv's recent record stands at 7W 9D 29L from 45 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 22L across 45 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lviv on 0.67 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 3W 5D 13L from 21 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 6W 6D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chornomorets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.11 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 7W 9D 29L in their last 45 games (0.67 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 10W 13D 22L in their last 45 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Chornomorets away?
Chornomorets's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.67 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lviv and Chornomorets runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Chornomorets have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Chornomorets?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 52%, Chornomorets 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lviv) and 71% (Chornomorets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lviv's games and 71% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Lviv's matches and 71% of Chornomorets's.
Do Lviv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Lviv 0-1 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.00 xG and Chornomorets 1.96 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lviv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Chornomorets attack 1.35 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 19% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 60%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 38%, Chornomorets 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.67 PPG, Chornomorets 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.