Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Ruh Lviv face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ruh Lviv welcome LNZ Cherkasy to Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ruh Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, LNZ Cherkasy have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Ruh Lviv.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Ruh Lviv 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy — a LNZ Cherkasy win.
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 34% of Ruh Lviv's games and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.943 / defence 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.256 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.203. LNZ Cherkasy bring a tight defence (rating 0.674, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ruh Lviv's projected output down. LNZ Cherkasy have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.96. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output up. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 50 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 50.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 7.67 | Draw 4.78 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.51. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ruh Lviv 0.74 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.943 / def 1.297 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.256 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 13% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 66% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.94) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 50 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
13%
7.67
21%
4.78
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.70
1.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
7.67
13%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
2%
54.44
32%
3.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.96 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 12D 23L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 17L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.14 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 6D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.06 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.12 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
5
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 42%, LNZ Cherkasy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ruh Lviv) and 29% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 42%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 75% of LNZ Cherkasy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 13% | Draw 21% | LNZ Cherkasy 66%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 30%, LNZ Cherkasy 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.14 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.