Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Oleksandria face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to KSK Nika to take on Oleksandria. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 March 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at KSK Nika this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Dynamo Kyiv have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Oleksandria.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 43% versus Dynamo Kyiv 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 43% | Dynamo Kyiv 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.802 / defence 1.039 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.293 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.165. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Oleksandria games / 50 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.00. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Dynamo Kyiv 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Oleksandria 1.00 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.802 / def 1.039 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.293 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 19 March 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Oleksandria 0 - 5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 24% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (8 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 2 | Dynamo Kyiv 6W.
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.80x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
24%
4.15
26%
3.91
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
19.82
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.56 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 49 games, going 22W 12D 15L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.14 PPG from 49 outings (30W 15D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oleksandria's home form reads 14W 4D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.00 points per game from 24 outings (13W 9D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.10 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 12D 15L in their last 49 games (1.59 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 30W 15D 4L in their last 49 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.92 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 42%, Dynamo Kyiv 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 58% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 58% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 0-5 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.29 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 43%, Dynamo Kyiv 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.59. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.