Kudrivka 0-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kudrivka host Polessya at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kudrivka are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Polessya have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kudrivka, 1 for Polessya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Polessya winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 64% versus Polessya 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 54% | Polessya 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.87 xG and Polessya 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.893 / defence 1.123 | Polessya attack 1.401 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.163. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Kudrivka games / 50 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Polessya 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kudrivka 80% | Polessya 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Kudrivka 0.87 / Polessya 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.893 / def 1.123 | Polessya attack 1.401 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Polessya (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Polessya xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Polessya kick off?
Kudrivka vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Kudrivka 0 - 2 Polessya.
Where is Kudrivka vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Polessya part of?
Kudrivka vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 17% chance of winning, Polessya a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kudrivka and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Polessya?
Record (1 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 0 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and Polessya in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 0.89x the league average against Polessya's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
17%
5.81
23%
4.38
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.70
1.83
Polessya xG
5.81
17%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
36.17
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.83 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 6W 6D 10L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 5L across 22 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Polessya's away record stands at 8W 0D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.95 PPG overall record — Polessya travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.64 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Polessya in 27%.
Defensively: Polessya in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Polessya have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.60 PPG; Polessya away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Polessya in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
0
Draws
2
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Polessya?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 0, Polessya have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Kudrivka 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 80%, Polessya 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Kudrivka and 50% for Polessya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Polessya in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Polessya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kudrivka's games and 30% of Polessya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kudrivka's matches and 50% of Polessya's.
Do Kudrivka and Polessya tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Polessya in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Kudrivka 0-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.87 xG and Polessya 1.83 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kudrivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Polessya attack 1.40 / defence 0.82, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 54%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Polessya's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.