Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ruh Lviv face Kolos Kovalivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kolos Kovalivka travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv in Premier League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.20 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Ruh Lviv 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka — a Ruh Lviv win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 35% versus Kolos Kovalivka 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 33% | Kolos Kovalivka 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.983 / defence 1.264 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.847 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.226. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output up. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 52 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 52.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.10 | Draw 3.68 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.14 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.983 / def 1.264 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.847 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Kolos Kovalivka xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 32% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.98) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 52 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.68
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Kolos Kovalivka xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.31 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 15L across 52 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 7W 6D 12L from their last 25 home games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across their last 25 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.90 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Kolos Kovalivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 16W 21D 15L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.08 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ruh Lviv) and 32% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 40%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 36% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Kolos Kovalivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 36% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 32% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 68% of Kolos Kovalivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 23, as Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Kolos Kovalivka 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.