Polessya 2-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kryvbas KR travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Polessya in Premier League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Polessya stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Polessya have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kryvbas KR's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Polessya are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Polessya, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Polessya 1–0 Kryvbas KR — a Polessya win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Polessya in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 47% versus Kryvbas KR 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 37% | Kryvbas KR 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.10 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.000 / defence 0.884 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.825 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.205. Data: built from Polessya's last 49 games and Kryvbas KR's last 49.
Result probabilities: Polessya 40% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 29%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.49 | Draw 3.23 | Kryvbas KR 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Polessya 20% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 40% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Polessya 1.10 / Kryvbas KR 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.000 / def 0.884 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.825 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Polessya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Kryvbas KR xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Polessya vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Polessya 2 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Polessya vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 40% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Polessya and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Polessya vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.00) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 49 games and Kryvbas KR's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.23
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Polessya xG
Total xG
1.98
0.88
Kryvbas KR xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Polessya and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Polessya and 0.88 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Polessya come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 15D 11L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.59 PPG from 49 outings (21W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.71 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Polessya's home form reads 9W 11D 5L across their last 25 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 25 away games (9W 9D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.33 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 23W 15D 11L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 21W 15D 13L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Polessya's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.52 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Polessya or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Polessya's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Polessya
2
Draws
1
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 4, Kryvbas KR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Polessya 1-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Kryvbas KR?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 48%, Kryvbas KR 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Polessya and 36% for Kryvbas KR.
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 40%; Polessya have failed to score in 32% of games; Kryvbas KR in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Polessya's recent matches and 40% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Polessya's recent games and 36% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Polessya's recent matches and 56% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Kryvbas KR 2-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.10 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.88 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Polessya beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 40% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 29%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 37%, Kryvbas KR 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.71 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.