Oleksandria 0-3 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Veres Rivne make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Oleksandria (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Veres Rivne's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Veres Rivne away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Veres Rivne are 0.60 PPG clear of Oleksandria over their recent games (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Oleksandria have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Veres Rivne managing 0 and 5 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Oleksandria 1–1 Veres Rivne — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Oleksandria an edge — 3 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 42% versus Veres Rivne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 44% | Veres Rivne 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.737 / defence 1.338 | Veres Rivne attack 0.777 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.117. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Veres Rivne's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Oleksandria's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Veres Rivne's projected output up. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 52 games and Veres Rivne's last 53.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 38%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.03 | Draw 3.46 | Veres Rivne 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Veres Rivne are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 30% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Oleksandria 1.06 / Veres Rivne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.737 / def 1.338 | Veres Rivne attack 0.777 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Veres Rivne xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Monday 20 April 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Oleksandria 0 - 3 Veres Rivne.
Where is Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne part of?
Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 33% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.74) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.78x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 52 games and Veres Rivne's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
33%
3.03
29%
3.46
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Veres Rivne xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.16 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 22W 13D 17L from 52 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 21L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.17 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 14W 4D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across their last 25 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 games (1.52 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Veres Rivne away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.84 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Oleksandria and Veres Rivne, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won Oleksandria 0-3 Veres Rivne on 20 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
5
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Veres Rivne?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Oleksandria 0-3 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Veres Rivne?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 40%, Veres Rivne 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Oleksandria) and 48% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Oleksandria have failed to score in 28% of games; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 36% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Oleksandria's recent games and 48% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 76% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Oleksandria 0-3 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.74 / defence 1.34 against Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 33% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 38%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Veres Rivne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.52 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.