Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Oleksandria face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dynamo Kyiv travel to KSK Nika to take on Oleksandria in Premier League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Oleksandria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Dynamo Kyiv have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for Oleksandria.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2025, ended Oleksandria 2–2 Dynamo Kyiv — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 43% versus Dynamo Kyiv 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 43% | Dynamo Kyiv 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Oleksandria surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Dynamo Kyiv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.802 / defence 1.039 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.293 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.165. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.56. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 49 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 50.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.15 | Draw 3.91 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.99. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Oleksandria's last 10 home games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 40% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Oleksandria 1.00 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.802 / def 1.039 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.293 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Thursday 19 March 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Oleksandria 0 - 5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 24% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.80x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 49 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
24%
4.15
26%
3.91
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
19.82
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.56 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 49 games, going 22W 12D 15L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.14 PPG from 49 outings (30W 15D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oleksandria's home form reads 14W 4D 6L across their last 24 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 24 away games (13W 9D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.10 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 12D 15L in their last 49 games (1.59 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 30W 15D 4L in their last 49 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.92 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2026: Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 42%, Dynamo Kyiv 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 58% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 58% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 79% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 0-5 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.29 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 43%, Dynamo Kyiv 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.59. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.