Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Obolon'-Brovar's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ruh Lviv's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ruh Lviv are 0.70 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) — Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Ruh Lviv in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Obolon'-Brovar 2–1 Ruh Lviv — a Obolon'-Brovar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's games and 37% of Ruh Lviv's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 44% | Ruh Lviv 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.822 / defence 1.339 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.755 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.221. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 46 games and Ruh Lviv's last 47.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.00 | Draw 3.40 | Ruh Lviv 2.19. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 / Ruh Lviv 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.822 / def 1.339 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.755 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ruh Lviv xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 25% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.76x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 46 games and Ruh Lviv's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
25%
4.00
29%
3.40
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.07
1.24
Ruh Lviv xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.24 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 13D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (14W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.17 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 5W 9D 9L across their last 23 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 23 away games (7W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.04 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Obolon'-Brovar have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won Obolon'-Brovar 0-4 Ruh Lviv on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 30% (Ruh Lviv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Obolon'-Brovar and 17% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 35%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 52% of games; Ruh Lviv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 30% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 17% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 61% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.24 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 44%, Ruh Lviv 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.07 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.