FC Kharkiv 1-0 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host Kudrivka at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Kharkiv stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, FC Kharkiv have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kudrivka — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kudrivka have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
FC Kharkiv are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Kudrivka and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2025, ended FC Kharkiv 1–1 Kudrivka — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 28% versus Kudrivka 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 24% | Kudrivka 52%). Note also that Kudrivka surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while FC Kharkiv recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.41 xG and Kudrivka 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.019 / defence 0.652 | Kudrivka attack 0.727 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.152. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.55. FC Kharkiv have a tight defence (rating 0.652), which is pulling Kudrivka's projected output down. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 23 games and Kudrivka's last 23.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 58% | Draw 27% | Kudrivka 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.71 | Draw 3.67 | Kudrivka 7.01. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Kudrivka's lower xG of 0.55 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Kudrivka's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 20% (last 10 home games) | Kudrivka 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 58% | Draw 27% | Kudrivka 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG FC Kharkiv 1.41 / Kudrivka 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.019 / def 0.652 | Kudrivka attack 0.727 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Kudrivka xG
32%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 0 Kudrivka.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 58% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Kudrivka's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 23 games and Kudrivka's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 2-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.67
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.96
0.55
Kudrivka xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
3%
28.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.55 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 13W 8D 4L from 25 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Kudrivka, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 13L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 7W 3D 2L from their last 12 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kudrivka's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across their last 12 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.52 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.08 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games; Kudrivka in 60%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Kudrivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 13W 8D 4L in their last 25 games (1.88 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Kudrivka away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 2.00 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.67 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Kudrivka have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Kharkiv 17% BTTS, Kudrivka 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for FC Kharkiv and 33% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Kudrivka in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 42% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 33% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 42% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 75% of Kudrivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Kudrivka 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.41 xG and Kudrivka 0.55 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 0.65 against Kudrivka attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 58% | Draw 27% | Kudrivka 14%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 24%, Kudrivka 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kudrivka's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.