Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar welcome Kryvbas KR to Obolon Arena in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Monday 28 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 4 matches, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 1W 1D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Across their last 10 games, Kryvbas KR have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kryvbas KR are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 50% versus Kryvbas KR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 50% | Kryvbas KR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.867 / defence 1.253 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.973 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.241. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 4 games and Kryvbas KR's last 34.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 51%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.28 | Draw 3.85 | Kryvbas KR 1.97. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 50% (last 4 games) | Kryvbas KR 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 / Kryvbas KR 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.867 / def 1.253 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.973 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Kryvbas KR xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 28 August 2023 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 23% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.87) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 4 games and Kryvbas KR's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.85
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.45
1.51
Kryvbas KR xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
19.43
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.51 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-D across their last five.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 50%, Kryvbas KR 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 50% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 50% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 100% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Obolon'-Brovar and Kryvbas KR drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.51 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 51%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 50%, Kryvbas KR 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.