Dnipro-1 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dnipro-1's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.00 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 0.70 PPG lead over LNZ Cherkasy (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 71% versus LNZ Cherkasy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 71% | LNZ Cherkasy 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.53 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.204 / defence 1.065 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.923 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.191. Data: 33 Dnipro-1 games / 5 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 46% | Draw 25% | LNZ Cherkasy 29%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.45. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 70% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 46% | Draw 25% | LNZ Cherkasy 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Dnipro-1 1.53 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.204 / def 1.065 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.923 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
LNZ Cherkasy xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Dnipro-1 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 46% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.20x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.92x) against Dnipro-1's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 33/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
46%
2.20
25%
3.94
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
6%
15.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.17 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.00 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
0
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Dnipro-1.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 67%, LNZ Cherkasy 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dnipro-1) and 33% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 33%; LNZ Cherkasy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dnipro-1's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 6, as Dnipro-1 and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.53 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 46% | Draw 25% | LNZ Cherkasy 29%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 71%, LNZ Cherkasy 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.