LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Dynamo Kyiv at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dynamo Kyiv's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 2.10 (Dynamo Kyiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–0 Dynamo Kyiv — a LNZ Cherkasy win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 38% versus Dynamo Kyiv 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.084 / defence 0.919 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.668 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.232. Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output up. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.668, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 56 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 56.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.87 | Draw 4.42 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.084 / def 0.919 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.668 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Dynamo Kyiv xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 35% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (1.08) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 56 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
35%
2.87
23%
4.42
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
3.58
1.89
Dynamo Kyiv xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
5%
19.01
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.89 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 23W 15D 18L from 56 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 34W 15D 7L across 56 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 12W 7D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 16W 9D 3L across their last 28 away games, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.14 scored and 0.93 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into LNZ Cherkasy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 34W 15D 7L in their last 56 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.54 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.04 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
3
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Dynamo Kyiv 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 36%, Dynamo Kyiv 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 61% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 32%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 64% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 61% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 79% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 27, as LNZ Cherkasy and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.67 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Kyiv 43%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 30%, Dynamo Kyiv 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.