Kudrivka 2-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kudrivka face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kudrivka host Ruh Lviv at Obolon Arena in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Thursday 14 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kudrivka — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ruh Lviv's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Kudrivka) versus 0.20 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Kudrivka have won 0, Ruh Lviv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Kudrivka 2–4 Ruh Lviv — a Ruh Lviv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 7% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 59% versus Ruh Lviv 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 48% | Ruh Lviv 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.796 / defence 1.226 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.569 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.259. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.569 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Kudrivka's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Kudrivka's last 27 games and Ruh Lviv's last 57.
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.51 | Draw 3.02 | Ruh Lviv 3.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kudrivka are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kudrivka's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kudrivka 70% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Kudrivka 1.12 / Ruh Lviv 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.796 / def 1.226 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.569 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ruh Lviv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Kudrivka 2 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 40% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kudrivka's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kudrivka's last 27 games and Ruh Lviv's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
40%
2.51
33%
3.02
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.00
0.88
Ruh Lviv xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.88 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 6W 7D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 6W 4D 19L from 29 games, 0.76 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kudrivka on 0.86 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 14 home games (4W 4D 6L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 1D 10L from their last 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.66 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kudrivka (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kudrivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 4D 19L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.14 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kudrivka have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2026: Kudrivka 2-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 79%, Ruh Lviv 7% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kudrivka) and 21% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 79%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 79% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 7% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Kudrivka's recent games and 21% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 64% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Ruh Lviv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Ruh Lviv 2-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.57 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 48%, Ruh Lviv 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 0.86 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.