Kudrivka 1-2 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

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Full Analysis

Obolon Arena plays host to Kudrivka versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Kudrivka have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kudrivka are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Kryvbas KR's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Kryvbas KR have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Kryvbas KR edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Kudrivka 1–3 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 58% versus Kryvbas KR 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 50% | Kryvbas KR 58%). Note also that Kryvbas KR surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Kudrivka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.96 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.809 / defence 1.121 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.798 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.168. Kryvbas KR's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Kudrivka's last 22 games and Kryvbas KR's last 52.

Result probabilities: Kudrivka 32% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 37%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.10 | Draw 3.25 | Kryvbas KR 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kudrivka 70% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 away games).

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