Kolos Kovalivka 1-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Friday 21 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Kolos Kovalivka's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chornomorets (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Kolos Kovalivka's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chornomorets's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Chornomorets edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2024, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 Chornomorets — a Chornomorets win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 49% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 30% versus Chornomorets 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 15% | Chornomorets 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.11 xG and Chornomorets 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.753 / defence 0.856 | Chornomorets attack 0.902 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.012. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 47 games and Chornomorets's last 47.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Draw 34% | Chornomorets 24%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.38 | Draw 2.99 | Chornomorets 4.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kolos Kovalivka at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Chornomorets's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 home games) | Chornomorets 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Draw 34% | Chornomorets 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.11 / Chornomorets 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.753 / def 0.856 | Chornomorets attack 0.902 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chornomorets xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets?
Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 42% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.90x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 47 games and Chornomorets's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.99
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.89
0.78
Chornomorets xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.78 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 10W 20D 17L from 47 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 29L across 47 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Kolos Kovalivka against 0.94 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kolos Kovalivka have managed 3W 12D 8L from their last 23 home games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 3W 3D 17L across their last 23 away games, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.04 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Chornomorets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 10W 20D 17L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 13W 5D 29L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Chornomorets away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 0.91 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Chornomorets have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won Chornomorets 3-0 Kolos Kovalivka on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
1
Draws
4
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Chornomorets have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Kolos Kovalivka 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 26%, Chornomorets 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Kolos Kovalivka and 48% for Chornomorets.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 61% of games; Chornomorets in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 52% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 48% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Chornomorets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 78% of Chornomorets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat Kolos Kovalivka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Kolos Kovalivka 1-2 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.11 xG and Chornomorets 0.78 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Chornomorets attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Draw 34% | Chornomorets 24%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Chornomorets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 15%, Chornomorets 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.06 PPG, Chornomorets 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.