Ruh Lviv 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Ruh Lviv welcome LNZ Cherkasy to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ruh Lviv) versus 0.80 (LNZ Cherkasy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 2 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 55% versus LNZ Cherkasy 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 36% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.988 / defence 1.011 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.952 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.066. LNZ Cherkasy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Ruh Lviv games / 47 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.00. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.50 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.988 / def 1.011 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.952 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.03
LNZ Cherkasy xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 47% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (3 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 2W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.99) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.68
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.52
1.03
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.03 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 17W 21D 9L from 47 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 19L across 47 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.53 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 8W 11D 4L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 6W 8D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 17W 21D 9L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.52 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
5
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 56%, LNZ Cherkasy 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ruh Lviv) and 39% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play LNZ Cherkasy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ruh Lviv's games and 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 39% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as LNZ Cherkasy defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.03 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 36%, LNZ Cherkasy 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.53 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.