Chornomorets 0-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Chornomorets welcome Livyi Bereh to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadion Chornomorets — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 0.80 PPG, Livyi Bereh 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Chornomorets's 30% rate and Livyi Bereh's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Livyi Bereh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chornomorets 41% | Livyi Bereh 23%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 41% | Livyi Bereh 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.868 / defence 1.143 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.657 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 0.975. Data: 48 Chornomorets games / 18 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Livyi Bereh 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Livyi Bereh 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Chornomorets 0.95 / Livyi Bereh 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.868 / def 1.143 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.657 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.147 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Livyi Bereh xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 39% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.87x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
39%
2.55
34%
2.95
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.69
0.73
Livyi Bereh xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.73 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 3D 14L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.82 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 3W 1D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Livyi Bereh have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.64 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 23%.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets's record when hosting Livyi Bereh specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
From 3 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Livyi Bereh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Chornomorets 0-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chornomorets 30% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 10%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Chornomorets and 20% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 40% of games; Livyi Bereh in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 10% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Chornomorets's recent games and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.73 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.66 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 41%, Livyi Bereh 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.82 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.