Chornomorets 0-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face Livyi Bereh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chornomorets welcome Livyi Bereh to Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chornomorets stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Chornomorets have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Livyi Bereh have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 0.80 PPG, Livyi Bereh 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Chornomorets's 30% BTTS rate and Livyi Bereh's 10% (from Chornomorets's last 10 home games and Livyi Bereh's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Chornomorets have won 0, Livyi Bereh 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2024, ended Chornomorets 0–1 Livyi Bereh — a Livyi Bereh win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 41% of Chornomorets's games and 23% of Livyi Bereh's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 41% | Livyi Bereh 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.868 / defence 1.143 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.657 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 0.975. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 48 games and Livyi Bereh's last 18.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.55 | Draw 2.95 | Livyi Bereh 3.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.73 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chornomorets's last 10 home games and Livyi Bereh's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 30% (last 10 home games) | Livyi Bereh 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Chornomorets 0.95 / Livyi Bereh 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.868 / def 1.143 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.657 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.147 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Livyi Bereh xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 39% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.87x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 48 games and Livyi Bereh's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
39%
2.55
34%
2.95
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.69
0.73
Livyi Bereh xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.73 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 3D 14L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.82 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Livyi Bereh have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 10 away games (2W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.64 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 23%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Chornomorets (Home) vs Livyi Bereh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets's record when hosting Livyi Bereh specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 0, Livyi Bereh have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Chornomorets 0-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Livyi Bereh's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chornomorets 30% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 10%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Chornomorets and 20% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 40% of games; Livyi Bereh in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 10% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Chornomorets's recent games and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 20% of Livyi Bereh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.73 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.66 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 41%, Livyi Bereh 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.82 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.