Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi plays host to Zorya Luhansk versus Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Zorya Luhansk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Zorya Luhansk have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Chornomorets (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chornomorets's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Zorya Luhansk, who have won 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Chornomorets — Chornomorets have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Chornomorets — a Zorya Luhansk win.
The head-to-head data gives Zorya Luhansk an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 51% versus Chornomorets 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 47% | Chornomorets 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.33 xG and Chornomorets 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.902 / defence 1.101 | Chornomorets attack 0.868 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.005. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 45 games and Chornomorets's last 46.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 43% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 25%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.32 | Draw 3.13 | Chornomorets 4.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Zorya Luhansk 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zorya Luhansk's last 10 home games and Chornomorets's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 50% (last 10 home games) | Chornomorets 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 43% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.33 / Chornomorets 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.902 / def 1.101 | Chornomorets attack 0.868 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Zorya Luhansk 2 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 43% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (0.90) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.87x) against Zorya Luhansk's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 45 games and Chornomorets's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.13
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.29
0.96
Chornomorets xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.96 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 12D 20L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.91 PPG from 45 outings (12W 5D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Zorya Luhansk against 0.91 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 7W 4D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.43 points per game from their last 21 away games (2W 3D 16L). That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.02 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs Chornomorets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 12W 5D 28L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Chornomorets away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.19 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Zorya Luhansk have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zorya Luhansk won Chornomorets 0-4 Zorya Luhansk on 18 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 7, Chornomorets have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 38%, Chornomorets 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Zorya Luhansk) and 48% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 43% of games; Chornomorets in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 52% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 48% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 76% of Chornomorets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Chornomorets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Chornomorets 2-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.33 xG and Chornomorets 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Chornomorets attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 43% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 25%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 47%, Chornomorets 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.13 PPG, Chornomorets 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.