Karpaty 1-1 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Karpaty face Kudrivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karpaty and Kudrivka meet at Ukraina Stadium in Premier League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Karpaty (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Karpaty at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kudrivka have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kudrivka have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Karpaty 2–2 Kudrivka — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Karpaty half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 50% versus Kudrivka 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 45% | Kudrivka 60%). Note also that Kudrivka surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Karpaty recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.31 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 0.849 / defence 1.120 | Kudrivka attack 0.847 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.128. Kudrivka's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karpaty's projected output up. Data: built from Karpaty's last 48 games and Kudrivka's last 18.
Result probabilities: Karpaty 42% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 30%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 2.38 | Draw 3.63 | Kudrivka 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karpaty at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karpaty if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Karpaty 60% (last 10 home games) | Kudrivka 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 42% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Karpaty 1.31 / Kudrivka 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 0.849 / def 1.120 | Kudrivka attack 0.847 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kudrivka xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karpaty vs Kudrivka FAQs
What time does Karpaty vs Kudrivka kick off?
Karpaty vs Kudrivka kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Kudrivka?
Karpaty 1 - 1 Kudrivka.
Where is Karpaty vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Karpaty vs Kudrivka part of?
Karpaty vs Kudrivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 42% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Karpaty and Kudrivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Karpaty vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Karpaty's attack rating (0.85) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.85x) against Karpaty's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Karpaty's last 48 games and Kudrivka's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.38
1.07
Kudrivka xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karpaty vs Kudrivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.07 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karpaty come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 7D 9L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Karpaty against 1.10 for Kudrivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karpaty's home form reads 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 10 away games (2W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karpaty are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.25 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka in 65%.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
Karpaty (Home) vs Kudrivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karpaty
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Karpaty vs Kudrivka Form FAQs
What form are Karpaty and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Kudrivka away?
Karpaty's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 0.70 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Karpaty or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karpaty won Karpaty 5-0 Kudrivka on 2 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karpaty have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Karpaty
2
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Karpaty vs Kudrivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Kudrivka?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Karpaty have won 1, Kudrivka have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Kudrivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Karpaty 5-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Kudrivka?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 60%, Kudrivka 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karpaty) and 40% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Karpaty have failed to score in 30% of games; Kudrivka in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karpaty vs Kudrivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karpaty and Kudrivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Karpaty's recent matches and 40% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karpaty and Kudrivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karpaty's recent games and 40% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Kudrivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Karpaty's recent matches and 80% of Kudrivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karpaty and Kudrivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty and Kudrivka finished level at 1-1 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.31 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 42% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 30%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 45%, Kudrivka 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kudrivka's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karpaty 0.95 PPG, Kudrivka 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.