Inhulets 2-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inhulets and Kryvbas KR meet at Stadion Hirnyk in Premier League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
Inhulets's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kryvbas KR (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kryvbas KR have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Kryvbas KR edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Inhulets 1–1 Kryvbas KR — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus Kryvbas KR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 47% | Kryvbas KR 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.71 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.668 / defence 1.206 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.133 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.963. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.668 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Inhulets's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from Inhulets's last 17 games and Kryvbas KR's last 47.
Result probabilities: Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 4.94 | Draw 3.48 | Kryvbas KR 1.96. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Inhulets 30% (last 10 games) | Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Inhulets 0.71 / Kryvbas KR 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.668 / def 1.206 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.133 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Kryvbas KR xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Inhulets 2 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 20% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Inhulets and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.67x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.13x) against Inhulets's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Inhulets's last 17 games and Kryvbas KR's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
20%
4.94
29%
3.48
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.03
1.32
Kryvbas KR xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
5%
18.43
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 17.3 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.32 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 6D 10L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 9W 4D 4L from 17 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.29 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Inhulets (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Inhulets
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Inhulets and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 1W 6D 10L in their last 17 games (0.53 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 (1.82 PPG).
Have Inhulets or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Inhulets
2
Draws
1
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Inhulets have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Inhulets 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 41%, Kryvbas KR 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Inhulets) and 35% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 35%; Inhulets have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Inhulets and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Inhulets's recent matches and 47% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Inhulets and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Inhulets's recent games and 35% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Inhulets's recent matches and 82% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inhulets cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Kryvbas KR 2-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.71 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.32 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.67 / defence 1.21 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Inhulets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Kryvbas KR 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (17 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inhulets scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.