Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 67% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Kryvbas KR at Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Thursday 6 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shakhtar Donetsk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kryvbas KR away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shakhtar Donetsk at 2.30 PPG versus Kryvbas KR's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Kryvbas KR and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 5–2 Kryvbas KR — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus Kryvbas KR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Kryvbas KR 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.612 / defence 0.835 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.012 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 0.917. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.612 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 48 games and Kryvbas KR's last 48.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 13%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.50 | Draw 5.00 | Kryvbas KR 7.55. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 67% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Shakhtar Donetsk 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 60% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Thursday 6 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.03 / Kryvbas KR 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.612 / def 0.835 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.012 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.213 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Kryvbas KR xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Thursday 6 March 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 67% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.61x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 48 games and Kryvbas KR's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.00
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.81
0.78
Kryvbas KR xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
2%
57.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.78 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 34W 8D 6L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 26W 10D 12L from 48 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kryvbas KR.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (19W 2D 3L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 13W 4D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.52 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Kryvbas KR's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 games (2.29 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 10D 12L in their last 48 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.46 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Mar 2023, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Kryvbas KR 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
3
Draws
0
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, Kryvbas KR have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Kryvbas KR 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 50%, Kryvbas KR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 46% (Kryvbas KR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 46% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 46% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 71% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 20, as Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.78 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.61 / defence 0.83 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 13%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, Kryvbas KR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.