Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vorskla Poltava face Dynamo Kyiv.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.40 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Dynamo Kyiv have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Vorskla Poltava.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Vorskla Poltava trading profile (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 46% versus Dynamo Kyiv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | Dynamo Kyiv 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.81 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.825 / defence 1.148 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.288 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.001. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Vorskla Poltava games / 48 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.89. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Dynamo Kyiv 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights