Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ruh Lviv travel to Girnyk to take on Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ruh Lviv — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Ruh Lviv 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Kryvbas KR 2–1 Ruh Lviv — a Kryvbas KR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus Ruh Lviv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 45% | Ruh Lviv 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.44 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.117 / defence 1.145 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.619 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.145. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.619 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 53 games and Ruh Lviv's last 53.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 21%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.92 | Draw 3.72 | Ruh Lviv 4.73. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 70% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.44 / Ruh Lviv 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.117 / def 1.145 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.619 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ruh Lviv xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Girnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 52% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.12x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 53 games and Ruh Lviv's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.72
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.25
0.81
Ruh Lviv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.81 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 23W 15D 15L from 53 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 25L across 53 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 13W 6D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.89 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 games (1.58 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.73 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, Ruh Lviv 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kryvbas KR) and 19% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 31%; Ruh Lviv in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 27% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 19% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 62% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Ruh Lviv 3-0 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.44 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.81 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruh Lviv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 1.15 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.62 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 52% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 21%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 45%, Ruh Lviv 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.