Kryvbas KR 1-0 Karpaty – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Karpaty at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face Karpaty.

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Analysis

Karpaty make the trip to Girnyk to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

Kryvbas KR (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Karpaty have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Karpaty have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.80 for Karpaty. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Karpaty edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Kryvbas KR 0–1 Karpaty — a Karpaty win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Karpaty goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 46% versus Karpaty 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 48% | Karpaty 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.29 xG and Karpaty 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.456 / defence 1.335 | Karpaty attack 1.041 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.267. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack rating of 1.456 — their 1.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Karpaty bring a tight defence (rating 0.694, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Kryvbas KR's projected output down. Kryvbas KR's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karpaty's projected output up. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 56 games and Karpaty's last 56.

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 27% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 48%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.66 | Draw 4.01 | Karpaty 2.10. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.29 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Karpaty as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karpaty if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kryvbas KR's last 10 home games and Karpaty's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 70% (last 10 home games) | Karpaty 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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