FC Kharkiv 2-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Livyi Bereh make the trip to Stadium Livyi Bereh to face FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadium Livyi Bereh: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium Livyi Bereh. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 1L from 9 games (1.56 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Livyi Bereh away from home this season: 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.56 for Livyi Bereh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 33% versus Livyi Bereh 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 44% | Livyi Bereh 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.40 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.169 / defence 0.738 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.841 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.136. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 FC Kharkiv games / 7 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 51% | Draw 32% | Livyi Bereh 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Livyi Bereh 5.88. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Livyi Bereh 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadium Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 51% | Draw 32% | Livyi Bereh 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.40 / Livyi Bereh 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.169 / def 0.738 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.841 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Livyi Bereh xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 10:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Stadium Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
FC Kharkiv 2 - 1 Livyi Bereh.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadium Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 51% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
Record (3 meetings): FC Kharkiv 2W | Draws 1 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-5D-1L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Livyi Bereh's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.84x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
51%
1.95
32%
3.10
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.10
0.70
Livyi Bereh xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
4%
24.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.70 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 6W 1D 2L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh's form line: 3W 5D 1L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Livyi Bereh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.89 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Livyi Bereh in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Livyi Bereh away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 2.25 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when FC Kharkiv 2-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (FC Kharkiv) and 50% (Livyi Bereh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for FC Kharkiv and 0% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 50% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 0% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Livyi Bereh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Livyi Bereh 2-1 at Stadium Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.40 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.70 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.17 / defence 0.74 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 51% | Draw 32% | Livyi Bereh 17%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Livyi Bereh 11%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.