Kudrivka 4-1 Bukovyna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Bukovyna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kudrivka host Bukovyna at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bukovyna stand at 1W 5D 2L from 8 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bukovyna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bukovyna away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Kudrivka) versus 1.00 (Bukovyna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bukovyna in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 62% versus Bukovyna 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 75% | Bukovyna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.56 xG and Bukovyna 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.037 / defence 1.236 | Bukovyna attack 0.620 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.088. Data: 38 Kudrivka games / 8 Bukovyna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 52% | Draw 30% | Bukovyna 18%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Bukovyna 5.56. Kudrivka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kudrivka at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 50% | Bukovyna 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Bukovyna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 52% | Draw 30% | Bukovyna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Kudrivka 1.56 / Bukovyna 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.037 / def 1.236 | Bukovyna attack 0.620 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Bukovyna xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Bukovyna kick off?
Kudrivka vs Bukovyna kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Bukovyna?
Kudrivka 4 - 1 Bukovyna.
Where is Kudrivka vs Bukovyna being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Bukovyna part of?
Kudrivka vs Bukovyna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Bukovyna?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 52% chance of winning, Bukovyna a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Bukovyna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kudrivka and Bukovyna will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Bukovyna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Bukovyna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kudrivka and Bukovyna in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bukovyna (all comps): 1W-5D-2L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kudrivka's attack rating (1.04) and Bukovyna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bukovyna's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.33
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.39
0.83
Bukovyna xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
4%
26.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Bukovyna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Bukovyna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.83 for Bukovyna, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Bukovyna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kudrivka come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bukovyna sit at 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bukovyna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kudrivka on 0.62 PPG, Bukovyna on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kudrivka's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Bukovyna have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bukovyna's season.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bukovyna are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bukovyna in 25%.
Defensively: Bukovyna in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Bukovyna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Bukovyna in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Bukovyna have gone 1W 5D 2L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Bukovyna away?
Kudrivka's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 0.33 PPG; Bukovyna away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Bukovyna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bukovyna in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kudrivka and Bukovyna runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
0
Bukovyna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Bukovyna?
From 1 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Bukovyna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Bukovyna last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Kudrivka 4-1 Bukovyna.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Bukovyna?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bukovyna see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kudrivka 33% BTTS, Bukovyna 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kudrivka) and 33% (Bukovyna).
On the defensive side: Kudrivka keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bukovyna in 33%; Kudrivka have failed to score in 67% of games; Bukovyna in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Bukovyna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Bukovyna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 0% of Bukovyna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs Bukovyna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kudrivka's recent games and 33% of Bukovyna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and Bukovyna tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bukovyna in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kudrivka run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bukovyna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Bukovyna 4-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.56 xG and Bukovyna 0.83 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.04 / defence 1.24 against Bukovyna attack 0.62 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 52% | Draw 30% | Bukovyna 18%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 75%, Bukovyna 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bukovyna's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 0.62 PPG, Bukovyna 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bukovyna (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.