Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Arena Livyi Bereg to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's home record at Arena Livyi Bereg: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Livyi Bereg.
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Livyi Bereh 1.40 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Livyi Bereh have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 3–1 with Livyi Bereh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.86 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.764 / defence 1.076 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.898 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.141. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Livyi Bereh games / 39 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 36% | LNZ Cherkasy 38%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 36% | LNZ Cherkasy 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.86 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.764 / def 1.076 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.898 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.10
LNZ Cherkasy xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 26% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): Livyi Bereh 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
26%
3.91
36%
2.77
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.96
1.10
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.91
26%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.10 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 3W 5D 2L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 3L across 10 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 1.40 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of LNZ Cherkasy's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Livyi Bereh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.10 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 20%.
Defensively: Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.60 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Livyi Bereh 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 40% BTTS, LNZ Cherkasy 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Livyi Bereh) and 60% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 60%; LNZ Cherkasy in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.