Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi face Ruh Lviv.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Ruh Lviv have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–0 Ruh Lviv — a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% versus Ruh Lviv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% | Ruh Lviv 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.20 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.152 / defence 1.195 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.677 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.192. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 19 games and Ruh Lviv's last 49.

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 29%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.41 | Draw 3.43 | Ruh Lviv 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 10% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights