Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Oleksandria encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Oleksandria to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 27 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Oleksandria have recorded 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Oleksandria have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 0 for Oleksandria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–0 Oleksandria — a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36% versus Oleksandria 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | Oleksandria 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG and Oleksandria 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.968 / defence 0.900 | Oleksandria attack 0.824 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.224. Oleksandria's defence rating of 1.288 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output up. Data: built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 24 games and Oleksandria's last 53.

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 22%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.88 | Draw 3.97 | Oleksandria 4.64. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 50% (last 10 away games).

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