Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

LNZ Cherkasy travel to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 0W 2D 6L from their last 8 home games — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

LNZ Cherkasy — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

LNZ Cherkasy's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. LNZ Cherkasy's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy — a LNZ Cherkasy win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 47% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59% | LNZ Cherkasy 18%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.902 / defence 1.338 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.053 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.270. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output up. Data: built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 16 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 46.

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 23% | LNZ Cherkasy 58%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.34 | Draw 4.28 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.73. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 8 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 75% (last 8 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).

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