Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi face Kudrivka.

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Fixture Analysis

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Kudrivka to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kudrivka stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kudrivka's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 0.70 (Kudrivka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Kudrivka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–2 Kudrivka — a Kudrivka win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% versus Kudrivka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59% | Kudrivka 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Kudrivka have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.67 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.176 / defence 1.096 | Kudrivka attack 0.796 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.228. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 21 games and Kudrivka's last 21.

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 24%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.94 | Draw 4.12 | Kudrivka 4.11. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 10 home games and Kudrivka's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% (last 10 home games) | Kudrivka 50% (last 10 away games).

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