Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv meet at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho in Premier League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Dynamo Kyiv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ruh Lviv's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ruh Lviv have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Dynamo Kyiv against 1.60 for Ruh Lviv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Ruh Lviv managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2025, ended Dynamo Kyiv 5–1 Ruh Lviv — a Dynamo Kyiv win.
The head-to-head data gives Dynamo Kyiv an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Dynamo Kyiv — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 61% versus Ruh Lviv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 59% | Ruh Lviv 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.208 / defence 0.893 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.810 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.287. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 46 games and Ruh Lviv's last 46.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 44% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.28 | Draw 3.37 | Ruh Lviv 3.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Dynamo Kyiv 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 50% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 44% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 / Ruh Lviv 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.208 / def 0.893 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.810 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ruh Lviv xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 44% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dynamo Kyiv's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.81x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 46 games and Ruh Lviv's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.37
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Ruh Lviv xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.93 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 27W 15D 4L from 46 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 19L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 14W 6D 2L from their last 22 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.98 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 27W 15D 4L in their last 46 games (2.09 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.18 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won Ruh Lviv 1-5 Dynamo Kyiv on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 54%, Ruh Lviv 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 18% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 36%; Ruh Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 32% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 18% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 64% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.21 / defence 0.89 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 44% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 27%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 59%, Ruh Lviv 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.