Inhulets 2-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inhulets and Kryvbas KR meet at Stadion Hirnyk in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inhulets's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Inhulets 0W, Kryvbas KR 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (17 games): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (17 games): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus Kryvbas KR 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 47% | Kryvbas KR 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.71 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.668 / defence 1.206 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.133 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.963. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Inhulets games / 47 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Kryvbas KR 1.96. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 30% | Kryvbas KR 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Inhulets 0.71 / Kryvbas KR 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.668 / def 1.206 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.133 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Kryvbas KR xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Inhulets 2 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 20% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Inhulets and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Kryvbas KR?
Record (3 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 2 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Inhulets and Kryvbas KR in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.67x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.13x) against Inhulets's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
20%
4.94
29%
3.48
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.03
1.32
Kryvbas KR xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
5%
18.43
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 17.3 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.32 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 6D 10L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 9W 4D 4L from 17 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.29 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 1W 6D 10L in their last 17 games (0.53 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 (1.82 PPG).
Have Inhulets or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Inhulets
2
Draws
1
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Kryvbas KR?
From 4 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Inhulets 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 41%, Kryvbas KR 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Inhulets) and 35% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 35%; Inhulets have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Inhulets's recent matches and 47% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Inhulets's recent games and 35% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inhulets cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Kryvbas KR 2-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.71 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.32 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.67 / defence 1.21 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Inhulets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Kryvbas KR 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (17 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inhulets scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.