Tightly Contested Predictions
Most evenly matched fixtures by predicted outcome probabilities — Monday 3 April 2023
These fixtures have the smallest gap between home and away win probability — meaning neither team has a significant edge. Our prediction model scores each fixture by how evenly the outcome probabilities are spread across all three results. Fixtures at the top are closest to a perfect 33% / 33% / 33% split, making them prime candidates for the draw and double-chance markets.
16 matches cleared our threshold on Monday 3 April 2023. The strongest reading belongs to Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia at 104% in the Ekstraklasa. The shortlist runs from 104% down to 73%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
The shortlist spans nine different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Premier League · England
Serie A · Italy
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Serie A · Italy
Superettan · Sweden
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Ligue 2 · France
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Superettan · Sweden
La Liga · Spain
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Showing top 16 most evenly matched fixtures (draw probability ≥ 22%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Tightly Contested — common questions
What does the Tightly Contested market mean?
Tightly Contested settles on whether a match is close to a three-way coin toss between home, draw and away. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate tightly contested probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The outcome evenness shown here is how evenly the model spreads probability across all three results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Tightly Contested on Monday 3 April 2023?
16 fixtures met the criteria, led by Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia at 104% outcome evenness.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the smallest spread between home, draw and away probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these tightly contested predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.