Sukhothai FC 3-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sukhothai FC face Chonburi FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Chonburi FC travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sukhothai FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chonburi FC stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chonburi FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sukhothai FC) versus 1.00 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Chonburi FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2023, ended Sukhothai FC 1–0 Chonburi FC — a Sukhothai FC win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 53% versus Chonburi FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 47% | Chonburi FC 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sukhothai FC surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Chonburi FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.36 xG and Chonburi FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.845 / defence 0.951 | Chonburi FC attack 1.199 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.256. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 39 games and Chonburi FC's last 38.

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.81 | Draw 3.86 | Chonburi FC 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Chonburi FC 80% (last 10 away games).

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