Sukhothai FC 1-1 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet in-form Ayutthaya FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 11:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sukhothai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Sukhothai FC at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ayutthaya FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 away fixtures (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Ayutthaya FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Sukhothai FC 1–1 Ayutthaya FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 22% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Ayutthaya FC 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 32% | Ayutthaya FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.778 / defence 0.866 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.003 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.127. Sukhothai FC's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 49 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 19.

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.65 | Draw 3.14 | Ayutthaya FC 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ayutthaya FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Ayutthaya FC 56% (last 9 away games), a notable divergence.

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