Ratchaburi 0-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Dragon Solar Park to face Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Dragon Solar Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.00 for Nakhon Pathom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nakhon Pathom in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.58 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.941 / defence 0.964 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.178. Data: 31 Ratchaburi games / 1 Nakhon Pathom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 22%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Pathom 4.55. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Ratchaburi 1.58 / Nakhon Pathom 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.941 / def 0.964 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Nakhon Pathom xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Ratchaburi 0 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 50% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.94x the league average against Nakhon Pathom's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.85x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.62
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.54
0.96
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
22.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.96 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Pathom by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Nakhon Pathom's attacking output running into Ratchaburi's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-6 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
2
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-6 Ratchaburi.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nakhon Pathom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 100% of Nakhon Pathom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 100% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Ratchaburi 0-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.58 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.96 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 22%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Pathom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 0%, Nakhon Pathom 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Pathom managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.