Prachuap 1-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours BG Pathum United (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face BG Pathum United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
BG Pathum United have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
BG Pathum United arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Prachuap have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, BG Pathum United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 0W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 67% versus BG Pathum United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 56% | BG Pathum United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.30 xG and BG Pathum United 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.934 / defence 1.091 | BG Pathum United attack 1.117 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.311. Data: 45 Prachuap games / 45 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 30% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 43%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | BG Pathum United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 70% | BG Pathum United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 30% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Prachuap 1.30 / BG Pathum United 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.934 / def 1.091 | BG Pathum United attack 1.117 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.60
BG Pathum United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Prachuap vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Prachuap 1 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Prachuap vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs BG Pathum United part of?
Prachuap vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 30% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Prachuap and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and BG Pathum United?
Record (5 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 3 | BG Pathum United 2W.
What form are Prachuap and BG Pathum United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (1.12x) against Prachuap's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.71
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.90
1.60
BG Pathum United xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
16.53
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Prachuap and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.60 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Prachuap's recent record stands at 11W 12D 22L from 45 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 15L across 45 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 6W 7D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.58 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or BG Pathum United away?
Prachuap's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.32 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 7-2 on 6 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 0W 5D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Prachuap
6
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when BG Pathum United 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 68%, BG Pathum United 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Prachuap) and 50% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Prachuap's recent matches and 41% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Prachuap's recent games and 50% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prachuap and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Prachuap and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.30 xG and BG Pathum United 1.60 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against BG Pathum United attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 30% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 43%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, BG Pathum United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.