Police Tero 0-4 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Boonyachinda Stadium to face Police Tero in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boonyachinda Stadium, Police Tero have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Police Tero register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Port FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Police Tero lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 71% and Port FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 64% | Port FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.42 xG and Port FC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.939 / defence 1.331 | Port FC attack 1.179 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.299. Data: 45 Police Tero games / 45 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 26% | Draw 23% | Port FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Port FC 1.96. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 100% | Port FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 26% | Draw 23% | Port FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Police Tero 1.42 / Port FC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.939 / def 1.331 | Port FC attack 1.179 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Port FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Port FC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Port FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Port FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Port FC?
Police Tero 0 - 4 Port FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Port FC part of?
Police Tero vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 26% chance of winning, Port FC a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Police Tero and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 3 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Port FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Police Tero's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.18x) against Police Tero's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
26%
3.88
23%
4.32
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.46
2.04
Port FC xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
3%
29.83
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Police Tero and 2.04 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Police Tero's recent record stands at 16W 14D 15L from 45 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 10L across 45 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Police Tero heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Police Tero have managed 9W 9D 4L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 8W 8D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Police Tero are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.02 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Port FC in 76%.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Port FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 16W 14D 15L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Port FC have gone 23W 12D 10L in their last 45 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Port FC away?
Police Tero's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.64 PPG; Port FC away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
3
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Port FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Police Tero, 77% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Police Tero and 59% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Police Tero's games and 77% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Police Tero's matches and 59% of Port FC's.
Do Police Tero and Port FC tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Port FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Police Tero 0-4 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.42 xG and Port FC 2.04 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Port FC outscored their 2.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against Port FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 26% | Draw 23% | Port FC 51%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 64%, Port FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.