Uthai Thani 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
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Match Analysis
Uthai Thani host Chiangrai United at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this season.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.10 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 1 for Chiangrai United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 53% versus Chiangrai United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 67% | Chiangrai United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.30 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.806 / defence 1.208 | Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.332. Data: 15 Uthai Thani games / 45 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 31% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 31% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Uthai Thani 1.30 / Chiangrai United 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.806 / def 1.208 | Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Chiangrai United xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 31% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.58
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.84
1.54
Chiangrai United xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.54 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.20 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.20 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Chiangrai United away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.14 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 43%, Chiangrai United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Uthai Thani) and 71% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 43% of games; Chiangrai United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 57% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Uthai Thani's matches and 71% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.30 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 31% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 41%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 67%, Chiangrai United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.20 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.