🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Port FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Port FC welcome Uthai Thani to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Uthai Thani — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.10 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port FC, 0 for Uthai Thani and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Port FC in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 69% and Uthai Thani 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 66% | Uthai Thani 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.83 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.077 / defence 1.044 | Uthai Thani attack 0.846 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.211. Data: 55 Port FC games / 56 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 22%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Uthai Thani 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights