🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Port FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Prachuap encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Thursday 10 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Prachuap have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Prachuap away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Port FC, 1.50 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Port FC 3W, Prachuap 1W, 3D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Port FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Prachuap — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 70% and Prachuap 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 64% | Prachuap 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.93 xG and Prachuap 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.019 / defence 1.011 | Prachuap attack 1.022 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.259. Data: 56 Port FC games / 57 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Prachuap 4.00. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights