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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Prachuap) versus 1.50 (Lamphun Warrior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Prachuap in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 48% | Lamphun Warrior 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.59 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.166 / defence 0.756 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.848 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.209. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Prachuap games / 57 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 57% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 18%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Lamphun Warrior 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Lamphun Warrior 40% BTTS from recent games.

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