Khon Kaen United 4-7 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Khon Kaen United face Ratchaburi.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Khon Kaen United and Ratchaburi meet at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Khon Kaen United have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Khon Kaen United's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Ratchaburi's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ratchaburi away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Ratchaburi arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Ratchaburi have the stronger record — 5 wins to Khon Kaen United's 1, with 1 draw.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Khon Kaen United 0–2 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.

Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 47% versus Ratchaburi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 54% | Ratchaburi 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Ratchaburi 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.643 / defence 1.085 | Ratchaburi attack 1.202 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.208. Khon Kaen United's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.202, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Khon Kaen United's last 57 games and Ratchaburi's last 57.

Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 26% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 48%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.87 | Draw 3.80 | Ratchaburi 2.09. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Khon Kaen United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khon Kaen United 30% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 away games).

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