Port FC vs Chiangrai United Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Port FC at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:30 UK time.
Form
Port FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Port FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chiangrai United's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Chiangrai United (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Port FC's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) — Port FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chiangrai United in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 10 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Port FC, 2 for Chiangrai United and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Mar 2026, ended Port FC 2–1 Chiangrai United — a Port FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 49% versus Chiangrai United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 51% | Chiangrai United 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.98 xG and Chiangrai United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.295 / defence 0.911 | Chiangrai United attack 0.892 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Port FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.295 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Port FC's last 37 games and Chiangrai United's last 37.
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.14 | Chiangrai United 4.81. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 10 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Port FC 1.98 / Chiangrai United 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.295 / def 0.911 | Chiangrai United attack 0.892 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Chiangrai United xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port FC vs Chiangrai United FAQs
What time does Port FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Port FC and Chiangrai United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Port FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.29) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.89x) against Port FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Port FC's last 37 games and Chiangrai United's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.14
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.16
Chiangrai United xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
3%
34.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port FC vs Chiangrai United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Port FC and 1.16 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 37 games, going 23W 7D 7L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (10W 15D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 14W 5D 0L across their last 19 home games, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 19 away games (2W 12D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.14 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 62%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Port FC (Home) vs Chiangrai United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Port FC vs Chiangrai United Form FAQs
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 23W 7D 7L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 10W 15D 12L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Port FC and Chiangrai United, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won Chiangrai United 0-4 Port FC on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Port FC vs Chiangrai United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Port FC have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 79% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 83% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Port FC, 84% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Port FC) and 42% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port FC vs Chiangrai United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port FC and Chiangrai United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Port FC's games and 84% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Port FC and Chiangrai United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Port FC's recent games and 42% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chiangrai United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Port FC's recent matches and 79% of Chiangrai United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.