🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Chiangrai United (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chiangrai United face Uthai Thani.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, Chiangrai United have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 63% and Uthai Thani 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 33% | Uthai Thani 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.42 xG and Uthai Thani 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.904 / defence 0.930 | Uthai Thani attack 0.870 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Chiangrai United games / 30 Uthai Thani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 31% | Uthai Thani 20%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Uthai Thani 5.00. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Uthai Thani 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights