Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Ratchaburi make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Chonburi FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Ratchaburi are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Chonburi FC, 4 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Chonburi FC 2–1 Ratchaburi — a Chonburi FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Ratchaburi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Ratchaburi 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chonburi FC surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Ratchaburi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ratchaburi surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Chonburi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Ratchaburi 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.894 / defence 0.966 | Ratchaburi attack 1.303 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.303, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 38 games and Ratchaburi's last 38.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 27% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 47%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.70 | Draw 3.90 | Ratchaburi 2.11. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 away games).

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