Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chonburi FC face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ratchaburi are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Chonburi FC 2W, Ratchaburi 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 54% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 46% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.22 xG and Ratchaburi 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.071 | Ratchaburi attack 1.020 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Data: 33 Chonburi FC games / 33 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Chonburi FC 1.22 / Ratchaburi 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.947 / def 1.071 | Ratchaburi attack 1.020 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ratchaburi xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 34% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (8 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 4W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.95) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.02x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.76
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.56
1.33
Ratchaburi xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.33 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 10W 9D 14L from 33 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 8L across 33 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chonburi FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 10W 2D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 6D 8L in their last 33 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 59%, Ratchaburi 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Chonburi FC) and 59% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Chonburi FC's games and 65% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 59% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.