Chonburi FC vs Port FC Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Port FC at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Port FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Port FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chonburi FC at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Port FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Port FC have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Chonburi FC, 4 for Port FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2026, ended Chonburi FC 1–1 Port FC — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Chonburi FC trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Port FC trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 60% versus Port FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 49% | Port FC 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.07 xG and Port FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.895 / defence 0.966 | Port FC attack 1.038 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 38 games and Port FC's last 37.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 27% | Draw 30% | Port FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.76 | Draw 3.38 | Port FC 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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